Lessons from Bagan Pinang by election

OCT 12 – Mohd Isa Samad was always going to romp home a winner in the Bagan Pinang by-election. And not because the constituents were swayed by the 1 Malaysia slogan. Or because Port Dickson was declared an army town.

Outside PD and, arguably, much of Negri Sembilan, he is a flawed character, a politician found guilty of buying political success.

But within the radius of the seaside resort, Isa is remembered as the long-serving Mentri Besar who used to play sepak takraw with youth in the area, who built new roads and who did not quite fit the template of the arrogant Umno warlord.

The debate on what contributed to his thumping victory and the consequences will continue for a while but here are some early lessons that can be drawn from the by-election – Barisan Nasional’s first triumph in West Malaysia since Election 2008.

•Power of the local machinery

Analyses by Umno shows that between 11 and 15 seats may have been “lost’’ in Election 2008 due to internal squabbling at division level and sabotage over the choice of the election candidate.

This disease has coursed through the veins of Umno for many years and was also seen during the Permatang Pasir by-election where disagreement over the choice of Rohaizat Othman as the candidate led to local Umno officials staying home during the campaign period.

No such problems cropped up in Bagan Pinang because Isa was a popular choice. The divisional officials wanted him as the candidate, as did the rank and file. The result: a formidable local election machine backed by the usual firepower from the federal government.

In contrast, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) did not have a strong local structure in Bagan Pinang. There are only four branches in the constituency and seven altogether in the Telok Kemang parliamentary constituency.

This shortcoming was fatal for the Opposition which was over reliant on help from outside the state to galvanise the election machinery. Even till the last few hours before polling closed, PAS officials were unable to predict the outcome of the election.

Lessons learnt: When Umno members embrace the candidate wholeheartedly and work together, the party remains a formidable opponent. PAS is very strong in the Malay belt but it has some way to go in states beyond Selangor.

•National issues have little traction when the local candidate is strong.

Cow-head demonstration. Teoh Beng Hock’s death. Endemic corruption in Umno. Power abuse at the highest level of government. Racism. Chauvinism. Pakatan Rakyat leaders who campaigned in Bagan Pinang used the same tried and tested formula which worked well in Bukit Selambau, Kuala Terengganu, Permatang Pasir, Bukit Gantang.

But national issues did not stir voters here. Umno/BN framed the bye-election as a contest between Isa and the novice, between someone who served the constituency well and someone who was airlifted in by his political party.

But what about Isa’s tarnished image? In middle-class Malaysia, his penchant for greasing palms may have been a liability but in his backyard, it was viewed as a minor transgression, committed against his party several years ago.

Lessson learnt: When a candidate is a local boy who has not forgotten his roots and has a good record of service to his constituents, people tend to be forgiving of his mistakes and indiscretions, however grave they are. Think of Chua Soi Lek, the sex clip and the fact that he still managed to obtain enough votes to become MCA’s deputy president.

Isa’s victory is going to strengthen claims by Umno officials that the party should field warlords in Malay-majority seats to ensure victory at the next general elections.

•Hubris can be costly. Even the most-blinkered Pakatan Rakyat support will have to admit that success in Permatang Pauh, Kuala Terengganu, Manek Urai, Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang, Permatang Pasir, Penanti, has bred complacency in the Opposition coalition.

PAS insiders noted that the party election machinery was not firing all cylinders in Manek Urai and Permatang Pasir and yet on both occasions PAS candidates achieved victory. These victories induced a false sense of strength, allowing some PAS/Pakatan Rakyat officials to believe that as long as they showed up for a contest and planted their flag in the centre of the constituency, the by-election was theirs for the taking.

In Bagan Pinang, the election machinery only hit second gear, and that too, 48 hours before voters went to the polls. A bit like taking the field with eight players, going behind by a clutch of goals and then still having the temerity to field two more players in the last 10 minutes.

Lesson learnt: Umno/BN have governed Malaysia for 52 years. They are not going to make way for Pakatan Rakyat without a fight. PAS and its allies must have the hunger and drive – which were the hallmarks of their effort in Bukit Gantang and Kuala Terengganu – if they are to return to winning ways.

•Bagan Pinang is not Malaysia.

Naturally, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak would like to claim that this by-election victory was an endorsement of 1 Malaysia but it was not. It was a by-election in Negeri Sembilan where BN won because it had a superior candidate and superior machinery.

The Indian women who were given saris did not support Isa because of 1 Malaysia. They had never heard of the concept, and still do not have a clue of what it stands for. If Isa or a similar candidate with questionable ethics was fielded in Subang Jaya or in the Malay belt up north, he would have been defeated.

Don’t think so? Just recall the number of BN politicians who were shown the door in Election 2008 by an electorate tired of their corrupt ways and arrogance.

A survey by Merdeka Center showed that some 76 per cent of those polled were against political parties fielding tainted candidates.

Lesson learnt: Bagan Pinang may be an aberration, and not a trend. (TMI)