It"s D-day today.
Voters are queuing to go to the ballot boxes, which just opened at 8am today, to choose their next wakil rakyat in an election widely seen as a referendum for both the Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional since the March 8 general election.
That's a lot of pressure on the shoulders of the 58,459 voters on the electoral roll. The bulk of it will be borne by those in the 21 to 40 age group, who makes up as much as 40 per cent of the total electorate.
The smart money is on Anwar for an easy win with only the majority in question but the answer should be known by 9 tonight.
BN believes it will lose the seat by between 6,000 and 12,000 votes slightly lower than in the March general election.
Why the disparity?
Because it acknowledges that security agencies, Wanita Umno have lost ability to gauge voter sentiment, making any assessment difficult.
The Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat comprises three state seats: Seberang Jaya, controlled by Umno; Permatang Pasir, under Pas; and Penanti, a PKR stronghold.
It is a Malay-majority constituency. The racial breakdown puts the Malays at 69.4 per cent, Chinese at 24.5 per cent, Indians at six per cent and others, at 0.1 per cent.
When the seat was vacated on July 31 by the incumbent, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail, PKR's president, the by-election was initially thought to be a mere formality for her husband, Anwar, to launch his re-entry into Parliament.
She had held the seat for three terms and was said to be his proxy. He had been the popular MP there before her, from 1982 until his high-profile sacking from the BN government in 1999 following a series of exposed sex and corruption scandals that landed him in prison for six years.
Anwar was also barred from political office until April 14 this year, missing the March 8 general election by a hair, and prompting this turnabout of events.
As Anwar is favoured to win with two of the three state seats already in Pakatan's pocket, Malaysia's underground bookies are taking bets not on who will win but by how wide Anwar's margin of victory will be.
Last week, the odds stood 5-1 in favour of Anwar winning by a majority of 20,000 votes. At the last check, the odds had dropped to 3-1 with a 10,000-vote majority. Anwar's popularity, it seemed, had dropped thanks to the shadow of fresh sodomy allegations brought against him by a former male employee, Mohd Saifu Bukhari Azlan.
But his coalition partners have rallied round him. They placed their own resources at his disposal, sending out their troops of campaigners to aggressively work the ground on his behalf.
The Pakatan camp has styled itself as a force for change and Anwar as the agent of change.
Its campaign strategies were focused on effecting reforms in the national economy and governance, and humanising it with tales of Anwar's sufferings past and present, which was used to mirror the rakyat's suffering under the prime minister's increasingly unpopular policies with regards to the management of the country.
The entire opposition movement stepped up its campaigning in the last weekend, with the multicultural leaders on both sides, Lim Guan Eng, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, even Pas's much beloved spiritual advisor Tok Guru Datuk Seri Nik Aziz Nik Mat, appearing together at the punishing nightly ceramahs and at other venues despite having their own respective congresses to attend to over the last two weekends.
In comparison, the BN election machinery appeared lacklustre, disorganised and far from being united. While the Pakatan election machine was working overtime sending out updates to press even at 3am, the BN's information department seemed to have gone to sleep.
It was unable even to furnish reporters with ministers' daily schedule. One expected more with the deputy prime minister, Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak, himself leading the ground charge and even Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi "turun padang" several times in the past nine days of campaigning.
Unlike Anwar's meetings with the grassroots, Najib did not seem to engage the local community when he attended several kampung functions yesterday. He flew in, accompanied by outriders, delivered his speeches aimed at discrediting his rival for the post of prime minister, speaking at length on the Sodomy II allegations and other scandalous exposes made by Anwar's former stalwarts, Ezam Mohd Nor, Datuk KS Nallakaruppan and Saiful.
But the response from the locals was poor. Most of them looked bored. A sprightly 76-year-old man from Kampung Kolam, Kubang Semang, said he was an Umno stalwart but explained that what he cared for in a leader was his ability to lead the people and generally take care of the welfare of citizens. And that was why he liked Najib, whom he believed to be a capable leader for his concern for retired soldiers from World War II and the communist plague in the 1960s.
However, he wished the BN would stop harping on the sodomy allegations. It was embarrassing, not just for the politician but for the image of Malaysia internationally.
"Buat malu sahaja," said the retiree, now a committee member on the all-powerful village committee.
It also seemed strange that Najib had not been briefed on the ground situation beforehand, as the emcees at these dos would announce, in nervous voices, "Errr... for your information Datuk Seri." as they laid out whatever situation it was in that area.
At a kenduri bersama rakyat in Kampung Kolam, Kubang Semang, yesterday afternoon, it was noted that Najib gave his speech, sat down and engaged in a mystery discussion before a gathering of mostly elderly villagers who stewed in the heat of the tent, hemmed in on all sides by pressmen, bodyguards and the BN cheer squad from out-of-town.
But the most telling sign of a fractious Barisan was seeing the rotund Arif Shah, the candidate, strolling about in a pasar malam in Taman Siakap, Seberang Jaya, minus any entourage whatsoever.
The locals love Arif Shah. Over the years, he has built a strong rapport with his constituents, Malay, Chinese, Indian and others who do not fit the racial pigeonhole. They reckon he is the best assemblyman around.
But his greatest strength is also his greatest weakness. As several Chinese locals have said during an interview, he is too good locally for them to lose him to Parliament.
And of Hanafi Mamat, from a spinter cell of Pas, well, his strategy has been to sit in his bilik gerakan, a makeshift tent pitched onto the grassy embankment next to the Seberang Jaya roundabout, and wait for volunteers to step forward, even though he insisted he had grand plans as an MP.
Excerpt from http://m.themalaysianinsider.com/articles.php?id=8151-d-day-for-permatang-pauh-and-malaysia
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